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During the protests after the killing of George Floyd, Shor, who had few followers at the time, tweeted, “Post-MLK-assassination race riots reduced Democratic vote share in surrounding counties by 2 percent, which was enough to tip the 1968 election to Nixon.” Nonviolent protests, he noted, tended to help Democrats electorally.
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Math-geek data analysts became a hot item for Democratic Party campaigns, and Shor was one of the field’s young stars, pioneering ways to survey huge numbers of Americans and experimentally test their reactions to messages and ads.īut it was a tweet that changed his career. The forecast proved spookily accurate: It ultimately predicted every swing state but Ohio within a percentage point and called the national popular vote within one-tenth of a percentage point. By 2012, he was deep inside President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, putting together the fabled “Golden Report,” which modeled the election daily. Shor started modeling elections in 2008, when he was a 16-year-old blogger, and he proved good at it. That, at least, is what David Shor thinks. If they fail, they will not get another chance. To overhaul how the party talks and acts and thinks to win back the working-class voters - white and nonwhite - who have left them behind the electoral eight ball. To offer statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. To pass a package of democracy reforms that makes voting fairer and easier. The coming year, while they still control the House, the Senate and the White House, is their last, best chance to alter course.
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And Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are wielding that leverage ruthlessly.īut here’s the truly frightening thought for frustrated Democrats: This might be the high-water mark of power they’ll have for the next decade.ĭemocrats are on the precipice of an era without any hope of a governing majority. Democrats hold a bare 50 seats in the Senate, which gives any member of their caucus the power to block anything he or she chooses, at least in the absence of Republican support.